Big Sales Predicted for Hawaii MMJ Dispensaries

Hawaii’s new medical marijuana dispensaries are expected to ring up $12.7 million to $38 million in sales during their first year of business, a report from the Hawaii Dispensary Association predicts.

By 2018, sales could surge to as much as $145 million, according to the association’s report.

The initial sales projections are based on a patient count of 14,074 MMJ patients, with each patient expected to spend $100 to $300 per month.

The association’s projections roughly correlate with those of the 2016 Marijuana Business Factbook, which predicts that Hawaii dispensary sales will range from $15 million to $30 million in the first 12 months of operation.

By 2018, the association predicts that sales will increase exponentially as Hawaii phases out home growing. That change that will likely send many more patients to the dispensary market.

Also by 2018, there will be 40,075 MMJ patients in the state, the report forecasts. That would bring revenue to anywhere from $48.3 million to $145 million, with a “likely target” of $80.6 million. The forecast is based on the same patient spending assumptions.

The 2018 figures do not include medical marijuana patient tourists, which the report predicts could number between 63,000 to 128,000. Based on those numbers, MMJ tourists could inject an additional $1.3 million to $58 million in revenue.

Under Hawaii’s MMJ program, the state is slated to have up to 16 dispensaries scattered among four islands.

3 comments on “Big Sales Predicted for Hawaii MMJ Dispensaries
  1. Seth Tyrssen on

    Well, I’m glad to hear that Hawaii is expecting to do a booming business. Now, how about all you big spenders dropping a dime to assist Rev. Roger Christie in his defense? He and Share, of THC Ministries, were still fighting a legal battle, last I heard; the feds had stolen literally everything they owned. If you can drop a C-note or two on your Sacred Herb, you can sure as Hell be of some help to those who are fighting for your rights to do so.

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  2. Jerry Cook on

    Why is home growing being “phased out” and how does anyone expect that to help or work? Its prolific, and not likely, especially in a climate where it makes use affordable and easy. Will there be massive arrests now? One step forward, two backwards.

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  3. Brett Roper on

    OK … lets look at the initial deployment and the current landscape in HA. There is a very robust personal caregiver model that has been supplying legal cannabis to the qualified (card holding) as well as grey market patient that will likely not be hugely diminished as it will be likely that the grower elements will continue to be cost effective competition. The initial roll out of the licenses and prognostications that there would be product in the cannabis pipeline in July now seems a pipe dream as well (still no testing protocols, no one a yet has requested a facility inspection, etc.) so it will likely be late this year or early next before a dispensary actually opens for business; hence no real marketplace until 2017 and even then it is likely that most of the licensees will not be fully operational until 1st or 2nd quarter 2017. I would strongly suspect half of the patient count (at the time dispensaries are actually open) will initially access a dispensary source due to the existing caregiver model and that the growers for the caregiver model will continue to drive prices down in order to be competitive as well as profitable. Assuming there are 24,000 card carrying patients by April, 2017 and that half are accessing a legal dispensary and that they are purchasing the equivalent of an ounce a month, this would yield a an initial demand of about 750 pounds per month and at a retail out the door value of $4,000 per pound, this could be a $3M marketplace initially so the $15M to $30M observation seems to be realistic but, the $145M suggestion for FY 2018 seems a bit out of line. I would be surprised if the patient count hits the 40,000 mark by 2018 as well as that would equal almost 3% of the population and based upon 40,000 patients accessing a 1 ounce per month at a $3,500 per pound retail equivalent this would yield up a marketplace of about $110M assuming the personal caregiver model actually sunsets. As we have seen in other states reciprocity is somewhat over rated and as a majority of the visitors to Hawaii are non US citizens, reliance on this ancillary income opportunity should be minimal at best (not including the mechanism to provide for verification of other US state card holders).
    All in all, the Hawaii marketplace will evolve but in comparing the 8 businesses that have bet 10’s of millions of dollars on the upcoming marketplace, they need to be patient as well as continue to provide operating capital to their operations likely through 2018 and beyond and those that cannot properly monetize their plant count in cultivation efficiencies will have to be very patient.

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