Chances that another state will legalize adult-use cannabis in 2026 and give the $32 billion industry a quick and simple avenue for growth are dwindling further.
Lawmakers in Hawaii, where marijuana legalization could unleash a $1 billion market, have admitted that too few colleagues support adult-use bills in the state, which has a strong social conservative streak.
And in Pennsylvania, familiar opposition from the key Republican lawmakers who have blocked adult-use legalization in the past appears still in effect.
That all comes on the heels of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis pulling out all the stops to thwart a costly marijuana multistate operator-funded legalization push in his state, going as far as to arrest campaign workers on allegations of fraud.
Will Hawaii legalize adult-use marijuana?
In an interview with the Honolulu Star-Advertiser, Hawaii’s Democratic state House Speaker Nadine Nakamura said that support for cannabis hasn’t moved in the legislature.
“We’re the same members from last year,” when a bill came close but did not pass, she said, according to the newspaper.
And despite movement elsewhere, such as President Donald Trump’s marijuana rescheduling executive order, Hawaii lawmakers’ minds haven’t changed, she said.
Conservative areas on Oahu, the archipelago’s most populous island, continue to be opposed, the newspaper reported.
That spells the effective end for House Bill 1624, which would have put a constitutional amendment before voters in November, as well as House Bill 1625, which would have changed state law only if federal cannabis law changes first, the newspaper reported.
Will Pennsylvania legalize adult-use marijuana?
In Pennsylvania, where Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro called on lawmakers to legalize cannabis in his annual budget address for the fourth straight year, a “very divided” Republican caucus continues to stand in cannabis reform’s way, according to Spotlight PA.
The Democratic-controlled state House passed a legalization bill last year that would have set up state-run retail sales. Shapiro did not say whether he supported that model, but the question was mooted when legalization supporters in the Republican-controlled Senate shot it down.
With another massive budget deficit looming, the state needs cash like the tax revenue from legalized cannabis. Along with Florida, Pennsylvania is considered a major new market for adult-use cannabis.
But as Spotlight PA reported, there are 27 Republicans in the 50-member Senate. And “it’s unclear if there’s enough support to advance any cannabis bill” in that chamber, despite consistent support from individual lawmakers like state Sen. Dan Laughlin, an Erie Republican.
Shapiro has yet to make a serious effort to work with Republicans in Harrisburg, Laughlin told the outlet.
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What state will be the next to legalize adult-use marijuana?
New adult-use markets opened in 2025 in Delaware and in Minnesota. In Ohio, where adult-use sales began in August 2024, retailers reported more than $1 billion in combined recreational and medical cannabis sales in 2025, the first full year of legalization.
At least one market could open in 2026 if lawmakers in Virginia, which legalized adult-use cannabis in 2021 but did not set up sales, pass a bill with a late fall opening date as proposed.
But beyond that, it’s far from clear which state will be the 25th to allow adults 21 and older access to cannabis without a medical recommendation.
Instead, there’s some movement toward undoing legalization in several states. That includes Oklahoma, where Gov. Kevin Stitt recently said he supports a voter initiative that would end that state’s roughly $600 million medical marijuana market.
