The international legal marijuana market will reach $31.4 billion by 2021, according to a study by the Brightfield Group, a cannabis market research firm.
It’s the second major international cannabis report released in the past two weeks.
In the first, London-based Prohibition Partners published its own research estimating that Europe’s medical and recreational markets could combine for close to $67 billion in a few years.
The Brightfield study estimates that the global market is currently worth $7.7 billion but will see a compound annual growth rate of 60% as more nations launch legalized medical and recreational programs, Forbes reported.
The United States is now responsible for 90% of global cannabis sales, but that market share will plummet by more than a third, to 57%, according to Brightfield’s report.
Most new international business will be driven by the Canadian recreational market, expected to launch next summer, and medical markets that are expected to come online in Europe and Latin America.
The U.S. market will continue to dominate because of its size, Brightfield research director Bethany Gomez told Forbes, and because most international medical markets are largely restricted to oils and face other constraints that hamper patient access and market development.
“Brand loyalty to an oil is not as strong as brand loyalty to an edible,” Gomez told the publication. “I don’t see the market being so static that … a change in federal regulations would prohibit (American companies) from being able to catch up.”