Projected US cannabis market size

Updated June 2022

Combined U.S. medical and recreational cannabis sales could reach $33 billion by the end of 2022, largely driven by the opening of new adult-use markets.

Retail cannabis sales are projected to be upwards of $52.6 billion by 2026, according to analysis from the MJBiz Factbook.

U.S. Cannabis Retail Sales Estimates: 2021-26

Both medical and adult-use markets posted strong growth in 2021, up an estimated 34% and 43%, respectively, over 2020 sales. While only a few states remain without a regulated medical marijuana market, the outlook for this part of the industry is still strong.

Several states with programs that have languished well below average, such as Louisiana and Minnesota, implemented new rules with the hopes of expanding participation. However, access remains a problem in many states with limited programs, such as Georgia and Iowa.

U.S. Medical Cannabis Sales Estimates: 2021-26

The outlook for the adult-use side of the U.S. marijuana industry is even stronger, at least for the near term, as states with the potential for massive markets, such as New York, work out the final details to launch programs that have been approved.

As the industry overall has matured, the transition from medical to recreational markets has accelerated.

In 2020, South Dakota made history by becoming the first state where voters approved medical and adult-use markets at the same time.

The South Dakota Supreme Court overturned the approval of the recreational market, representing the continued disconnect between the public opinion of marijuana and the political will of those in positions of power.

U.S. Adult Use Cannabis Sales Estimates: 2021-26

The launch of Arizona’s recreational market also represents shifts in acceptance and adoption of the regulated industry.

Adult-use sales grew more rapidly than seen in previous markets making the transition, and MMJ patient rolls declined more steeply in conjunction with that shift.

U.S. cannabis retail sales estimates: 2021-26

The projected U.S. sales of cannabis through 2026, in billions of dollars according to projections from the 2022 MJBiz Factbook.
YearMedicalRecreationalCombined
2021$10.5$16.5$27
2022$11.9$21.1$33
2023$13.2$25.6$38.8
2024$14.2$29.6$43.8
2025$15$33.3$48.3
2026$15.6$37$52.6