Will wholesale cannabis slide to $500 a pound in California’s regulated recreational market?

The heyday for marijuana cultivators in California is on borrowed time.

The Golden State’s licensed recreational cannabis market begins in January, and some industry watchers expect the average price of wholesale cannabis to pass the red line of $500 a pound.

The price likely won’t drop immediately because the initial wholesale supply will be limited.

And that will keep the price up, for a couple of reasons:

  • The state is issuing temporary permits for companies, and only temporary license holders can do business with other temporary license holders, creating a limited market.
  • Businesses need both state and local licensing approval, and only 25%-30% of the state’s municipalities have agreed to allow cannabis commerce.

In other words, the initial limitations could keep the supply down and wholesale cannabis prices propped up for the short term.

But industry watchers in the state don’t expect that situation to last.

The number of California municipalities willing to approve cannabis businesses should increase over time as temporary moratoriums are lifted and more communities see that the sky isn’t going to fall. And that will add more and more wholesale cannabis supply.

“Definitely, the price is going to go down,” said Zeta Ceti, owner of Green Rush Consulting in Oakland. “You’re going to see that heavy competition where it’s a race to the bottom. That’s just inevitable.”

The history of wholesale prices in other states with regulated markets bears that out.

According to Cannabis Benchmarks, a Connecticut-based, independent price-reporting agency that uses a volume-weighted average to determine prices:

  • In Colorado, the oldest regulated adult-use market in the United States, the wholesale price of a pound of marijuana has dropped from $2,000 in January 2015 to $1,115 in November 2017.
  • Oregon’s price for a pound of marijuana in November 2017 was $1,777 – with a low of $500 and a high of $2,600.
  • Using the same metrics and dates, Washington state’s price for a pound of flower was $1,312.
  • Spot prices for a pound of wholesale cannabis in November 2017 in California were $1,318, with a low price of $500 and a high of $2,500.

Initial prices

Prices are expected to hold steady through the first months of Golden State’s rec launch, said Kristin Nevedal, a board member of the Humboldt County-based California Cannabis Industry Association.

“I don’t think there’s going to be a glut of supply to warrant a sharp fall,” she said.

Nick Caston – chief strategic officer of Pacific Expeditors Consulting Services and a board member of the California Cannabis Industry Association’s Sonoma County chapter – agrees that prices will stay level, to a point.

He notes that for the first six months of 2018 – during California’s regulatory transition period – cannabis grown for the medical market can be sold as adult use and vice versa.

So that should keep the supply steady, Caston said.

But once the regulations are firmed up in July, the supply stream will be split into two – either medical or recreational.

Once that happens, Caston expects a spike in prices from a lack of supply.

At that point, Caston predicts prices will run around $900-$1,400 for a wholesale pound of average quality marijuana, with premium cannabis selling for $2,000 a pound.

After the initial spike Caston expects in July, he is watching for a steady decline over the next 18 months. The ultimate dip will probably occur in about three years, he said.

How low will it go?

Is California going to hit the $500-an-average-pound wholesale mark?

“Absolutely, but I don’t think any time soon,” Nevedal said, adding she’s certain that wholesalers will be selling lower-quality flower and cannabis for extraction for $500 a pound or less.

Caston said he’s already heard of cultivators having trouble offloading this year’s crop at $400-$500 a pound wholesale.

A lot of retailers aren’t buying because they’re uncertain how the regulated market will shake out or have already stocked up out of the same uncertainty.

Ceti has seen some cultivators avoid the price drop by demanding higher prices based on quality, brand and relationships with retailers.

“At the end of the day, it’s about how they create a brand,” Ceti said. “Because certain brands command higher prices than others, even though the product is the same.”

Cost of doing business

It’s not just wholesale price that should concern cultivators. They also must consider their input costs.

Input costs include license fees, the staff time required to develop a licensing application and the cost of track-and-trace compliance.

For example, in the Metrc traceability system, each plant is required to be tagged with an ID tag that costs 80 cents.

The California Department of Food and Agriculture – which licenses cultivators – released an economic impact analysis in January 2017 on the effects of the cultivation regulations.

“Their estimation is that the cost of compliance will be around $560 a pound,” Caston said.

Caston estimated cultivators’ costs to grow a pound at roughly $200 now, before California’s regulations take effect. He characterized the cost of compliance in the fully regulated market as “enormous.”

Dale Gierenger, director of California NORML, pointed out that the testing requirements for cultivators will roll out over the course of the year and add more costs to growers.

“You’re definitely going to see an increase in the retail price,” said Gierenger, who’s unsure how it will affect growers directly.

Ceti envisions licensed business owners looking elsewhere to make money.

“It’s going to get really tight for the grower,” Ceti said.

“People are going to say, ‘This is too crazy. I can make more money on the black market.'”

Bart Schaneman can be reached at [email protected]

62 comments on “Will wholesale cannabis slide to $500 a pound in California’s regulated recreational market?
  1. Jake Schrader on

    Dear MJBiz:

    While the overall long term forecast of an average price of $500 for wholesale pot in California might prove to be true, as I read this article, it seems to me that your headline – though attention grabbing – is perhaps not quite in sync with the assertions within. Allow me to offer why I think this:

    1 – It seems that all the sources quoted agree that the first 6 months will probably see stable pricing, and that then, when the bifurcation of markets happen, the initial move in pricing will be up, not down. While your article does allude to this, your choice of words is “propped up for the short term” I’m not sure why the advent of the state’s licensing would be seen as a prop, and I’m also not sure about how long something has to be before it isn’t “short term” any more. But so be it.

    2 – None of the other states mentioned – Colorado, Oregon, or Washington have an AVERAGE wholesale price of anywhere near $500, so on the evidence presented, why do you think California will be so different? $500 a pound for lousy dirt weed is probably the price already. But it certainly isn’t representative of the market in any of those states, and tossing it up in the article’s title seems less than honest to me.

    3 – Cannabis Benchmarks says the CA price last month was $1318 on average with a range of $500 to $2500. Let’s assume that’s accurate. Then one of your sources says that he “expects a spike in prices from a lack of supply.” He goes on to predict that prices will “run around $900-$1,400 for a wholesale pound of average quality marijuana, with premium cannabis selling for $2,000 a pound.”

    The problem – for me anyway – is that after saying prices will spike, the levels he predicts are lower than the current prices you’ve offered as the market earlier in the article from Cannabis Benchmarks. So someone’s not right here. Numbers are what they are.

    4 – One of your sources goes on to say he’s “heard of cultivators having trouble offloading this year’s crop at $400-$500 a pound wholesale.” But your article fails to point out that starting January 1, 2018 state licensed dispensaries will have a 6 month window to sell old inventory, but it will have to be labeled as such. And if it wasn’t tested in accordance with the new regulations, this will also have to be labeled.

    So it seems to me that this current flood of product which I agree is hitting the market is from growers who are not planning to enter the state regulated system and are just trying to raise some cash by selling whatever they can and whatever prices the market offers.

    To sum up, the answer to the question your article asks in its title might be yes someday, I don’t know, and I don’t pretend to. But as I read it, the story doesn’t suggest that it will be soon, and in fact, doesn’t suggest – at all – that $500 pounds will be the norm, either in California, or anywhere else any time soon.

    To paraphrase the Narrator “on a long enough timeline everything goes to zero” – but that doesn’t mean that responsible cultivators who are able to operate in the California state legal markets and offer a quality product don’t have a rosy future ahead of them, and I believe your article is unnecessarily pessimistic about their chances.

    Just Some Guy

      • Sean on

        Oregon has over 1 million lbs. on metrc, last year Oregon consumed 400,00lbs. for the whole year. What does that tell you? A lot of growers will go under this year in OR.

    • Mike A on

      I think we will see prices push down to around 250 a pound as Aphria and Aurora continue into the Legal US space. And definitely watch Hemp Inc. this company is set it self well in the US market.

    • grant on

      ultimately MJ is just another AG crop. Current regs may restrict supply for a time, and keep prices up, but the regs will change and the farms will get bigger. A reference point that i think works are Napa wine grapes. They are a high touch premium crop and they sell for $5,000 a ton at harvest. After drying, a ton of MJ would be about 200 pounds, or $25/lb. Indoor will certainly draw a premium, but the price of MJ will be primarily regulatory costs and taxes.

      • Jonathonsdaddy on

        With higher retail pricing for consumers , I think we will see an increase in Home
        growers ! Not everyone can afford 20 dollar grams of Cannabis , this not a commodity like Oil , any smart american can grow it very easily …..

    • Desert Dweller on

      I’ve attended several California cannabis conventions over the past few months. One of the recurring thoughts is that up to 70% of the first harvest will fail testing. The reasoning goes that many growers who are not accustomed to testing will fail one or more of the pesticide, heavy metal water contamination and mold contaminant requirements. The continuation of the thinking is that this will wipe out the less well capitalized growers, creating a shortage before growers adjust to the new regulations. After the initial chaos, it’s impossible to overlook the more than 14mm sq ft of indoor grow facilities that are either approved or in some stage of planning in the Coachella Valley alone – and this does not take into account Adelanto, Needles, Blythe, and other locales that are have approved cannabis cultivation zones.

    • Luke on

      Actually cap weed is getting .30 to .40 per gram right now. In Washington of your THC is lower then 20% No retail shop will take it, blasting to oil is your only way out to generate any return on the investment made to grow. That does not even count the weed that can’t pass testing. We feel 1.59 to 2.09 will be the wholesale price for premium weed. Any higher and the concentrates become the cheaper and better solution. If the feds legalize all bets off. The indoor grower can’t compete with the farmer’s of america.

      • David on

        Wrong, outdoor grows cannot maintain or produce a consistent quality. Also, many people who smoke are not going to want pesticides to be sprayed on the weed they are about to smoke. Edibles & oils might be an entirely different story.

    • Larry on

      This is totally misleading article. First,..Indoor hydroponic cannabis have come light years in quality from the past as Is well known to be a much higher quality that outdoor mass growing operations. The “indoor grow” is much more trouble ,cost and labor intensive, resulting in a superior quality of high end flowers that can’t even be produces for $500.00 a pound like lower quality outdoor can be. So, “mom and pops” who put in the effort to produce top shelf high connoisseur quality the market will always be there. I suspect it will never go below around $1,600 per pound and in many cases depending on quality much higher than this.

    • Edward Connor on

      Very well thought out answer. I agree. Look people want high quality products. So u can pay 500 dollars 4 garbage or u can pay 1500-1800 dollars 4 real marajuana. In the end its your choice.

    • Mike on

      This just reads like someone who is hoping their business won’t go under. The fact of the matter is prices are going to keep going down over the long run.

    • Rhajid on

      This isn’t a direct reply or an argument just an observation. In a post Enron energy economy HOW can anyone believe that indoor prices can go down? With no new power plants on the way and the rising cost of solar panels this seems impossible. Everyone wants indoor stuff or really good light reps. This article does not cover this crucial issue. Full season outdoor weed isn’t selling for much because very few people want it now that indoor and light deep have come so far. Just my thoughts
      Cali resident

    • David on

      This industry will be like every other that we have today. Whether it’s alcohol, wine, tobacco or cannabis the markets eventually stabilize and companies of all sizes seem to be able to make a living at it. I believe cannabis will be more like beer companies where we have the giant beer companies who make just the average beer then there’s going to be micro growers who are going to grow specific high-grade very specialized marijuana and specialize strains of marijuana that people will pay a premium for Just like they do today with the micro breweries.

  2. Brett Roper on

    $500 per pound claims sounds more like Oregon’s current oversupply problem due to the proliferation of new outdoor one and done grows, noting overtime that market should normalize … Certainly agree with ‘Just Some Guy’s’ comments noting the west coast has always had a reputation for having a wide variety of products and prices. The Colorado market as an example, where competition over the years has become quite significant still sees somewhat of a see saw in wholesale prices in the fall due to the impact of the typical one and done outdoor grower, many of which failed this year due to grasshoppers or other afflictions. There is also a distinct difference in the pricing of cannabis (dried flower) as it goes to consumers based upon where it was grown … indoor grown product typically gets $100-$250 more per pound than Greenhouse … Greenhouse grown product typically gets $100-$150 more per pound than outdoor noting in some cases the delta can be even higher. California’s primary road block initially will center around providing a safe, tested supply of cannabis to both the consumer as well as extraction partners.

    • JW on

      I think you are forgetting though that no California flower can leave the state. Traditionally, most flower grown in CA is sent out of state. Not to mention the mega grows being set up like boxcar houses all over the desert. If people think CA won’t have an oversaturation problem at least as bad as if not worse than Oregon, they really aren’t looking at all of the pieces here.

  3. Andre Tate on

    Looks like Metrcs system which was ‘Hacked” twice this year alone is the method of Seed to sale tracking. I personally used this in Colorado an prefer MJ Freeway.
    Combine this with the fact that the [Pricing for] ID tags have jumped from [0.30 to 0.50]cent/ plant differentiating Medical & Rec Plants.. [0.8] is definitely a (gouge) on California Growers.
    Why should Californian Business trust Medtrcs’.

  4. PARIS on

    Race to the bottom is a real consideration as we see in Wa state. Way to stop it is by a strong growers pricing cartel as in all other major commodity businesses. Can stoners unite?? I hope so!

  5. Larry on

    People, can anyone explain why a plant that grows indigenously outdoors for free costs $500/pound to grow? Seems silly that we are building air conditioned warehouses to grow plants that grow better outdoors. ONLY reason marijuana is a high value crop, and expensive to grow is that it is highly regulated or illegal. That is changing and will continue to change going forward. It will cost much much less to grow and prices will fall. Compare it to any other agriculture commodity. And if scientists figure out how to make this stuff in a lab, growers will be in a world of marijuana!!

    • Morgan Glenn on

      Larry…what’s grown in a lab would obviously cost more. Indoor has better crystallization. The trichomes make up a bigger % of the weight of the bud with indoor while outdoor the plant matter itself like leaves and stems are thicker and weigh more. I love the sun but I myself prefer indoor when both are placed in front of me.

    • Dee on

      You know I’ve heard a lot of things that people just shout out of their mouth before they think do you not think people like I don’t know Marlboro why in any kind of cigarettes that you are now purchasing in the store that comes out from the earth that they did my property and think I had to keep seeds I mean to tell you the truth anybody that wants to go into anything sometimes you have to start where you know maybe later down the road you know marijuana will become legal and if not pay you bought property at a price now that you can’t even touch so as you said yes it does come from the earth and it does do Miracles miracles with conditions of All Sorts so if you can find somebody that knows what they’re doing actually doing it would be like buying a pack of cigarettes with the brand name now you can always go and buy an off-brand pack of cigarettes you know the ones that they just beliefs that they’re left and they put them together and you know you just saving $2 but hey that’s their lungs the great thing behind this is we don’t have nicotine it’s been proven over and over and if you want to blend it up in the blender I tell you there’s a great smoothie that you can do and it turns out like hash how crazy is that just saying smart people think smart things and they don’t always tell everybody that’s why they call I’m partners do you know what the wise man said you will always know a wise person when you look in their eyes it’s hard to find Partners if you can count five on your hand you’re a lucky person I mean if you’re at a place where they say they’re going to pick you up at 1 and its 2 hours away is 3 you know they’re coming because that’s what it’s all about it’s all about friendship based on King work and everything that goes along with it you know like the case uni family this is what our life is so there you go from the Earth 2 the people who wish to buy this and if they want to do it in their own home hey more power to him but if they want some

    • 420mike on

      Comments like these make me realize that most folks have no idea on what is capable with the hybrid cannabis strains that has been developed today. Couple that with controlled environments, light emitting plasmas, ceramics, and diodes, lab testing, tamper resistant packaging,…..and we now grow the strongest, cleanest cannabis known to man.

      Anybody can grow cannabis, only a few can grow the best. If you don’t know the difference between $500 a pound pot and $2000 a pound pot then you are just ignorant. The dispensaries will love your business.

  6. Dan on

    I’d like to add that for some unknown reason, every article I see that talks about the downward pricing pressure the industry is feeling in California notes this is due to a glut of product. “Just some guy’s” notes above touch upon some very valid points contradicting some of your article’s assertions. But beyond those points, to me it is CLEAR AS DAY the supply vs. demand business principles are going to shift DRAMATICALLY from over supply in California based upon one critical concept. This is, of the nearly 40 million citizens in California, it is safe to estimate that FIVE MILLION or so CA citizens do not currently enjoy the benefits of cannabis either medicinally or recreationally BUT would like to. They are either too concerned or confused by the current medicinal MJ system (Doctor’s rec, sign up on a list, find a dispensary or delivery service, etc. other uncomfortable hurdles)) to, in their eyes, take the risk to partake. When California and/or the MJ industry’s largest stakeholders (businesses, associations, etc.) begin to properly market, promote and advertise the benefits, convenience and legality of cannabis in 2018, this surge of new (cross-demographic) consumers will dramatically shift the balance back the other way. Just my two cents from Santa Barbara County.

    • DR on

      R u nuts? 50% of population is under 21 or over 50. Majority of legal buyers between 22 and 45 let’s say. Most anybody that age who wants to smoke has been via black market. If you added a million serious smokers via legalization it’s a load. Access to weed has been a no brainer in California for many years. Decades. So now u buy it at a store instead of from your neighbor

  7. Ma Dang on

    So much for legalization.
    The article says price will drop to $500 / lbs. but grower costs rise to $ 560 / lbs ?
    Sounds like the Republican tax plan at work, hmmm.
    The new rule changes seek to allow corporate growers in, increase taxes on Growers, gouging on track-n-trace requirements, the distributors will get their cut, Lab testing costs are too high and now the cities / counties are asking upwards of $10K just for permits not including the State permits.
    Everyone I know is already saying screw Cali. I’ve decided I’m staying in the Black market by growing 6 plants under the medical allowance, keeping 1 lb and selling 5 lbs at $100 an ounce each to friends = $ 8K tax free. They’ll get it cheaper than at a dispensary and they already know my quality is better ! I don’t gouge nor am i greedy. The Greening of the Green Industry.
    When the government gets involved ‘the more things change, the more they stay the same’.

  8. Morgan Glenn on

    One thing that has to happen is the normalization of license fees and ancillary costs. Everyone wants to gauge the growers and dispensaries as if they are entitled to something we risked our freedom for. It’s a complete joke. A couple labs gamed the Oregon regulatory system to their own benefit screwing everyone else…don’t allow that BS to fly in CA. And stats here don’t differentiate between indoor and outdoor. Outdoor is flooded everywhere…black market and legal market. It’s already $500/lb in Oregon in both markets. Indoor has also equalized in both markets and currently stands averaging $1200-1400 for above average indoor. The highest quality scarcer indoor is $1600 max and few and far between. Average indoor is $1000-$1200. Light assisted greenhouse fetches better than straight outdoor but only inexperienced retailers pay higher prices because they can get fooled on the quality which starts off strong but has shorter shelf life and different manner of crystallization. Support smaller boutique farms if you can.

    • JT on

      completely, 100% agree on the normalization of fees. Problem is that the cities and counties are getting their advice from HdL (a company built out of CPA’s that made their fortune doing audits on municipal accounts and squeezed their way into the cannabis ordinance writing scheme through their client connections). We turned their numbers inside out down in socal, and we’re about to have the same fight with them in the Central Valley.

      That said, your $’s regarding current market price are pretty dead on. I was buying outdoor and greenhouse for $500 a unit this past October. Those prices aren’t going up. In fact, because of the fires those prices are dropping because of the extra work the extraction guys are having to do to pull out the contaminants. Socal is about to have the same problem given the ventura fires.

      As for inexperienced retailers…LA (the state’s biggest market) is about to get it’s ass handed to it because of Measure M’s implementation. If anything is going to drive the price further down it’s going to be inexperienced buyers reading that they can get pounds for $500-$800. There won’t be a shortage either because of the new regs regarding distribution and T&T. Smaller boutique farms won’t be able to compete because they’re now in a pool of about 30k other growers up and down the state and they’ll have to spend an inordinate amount of resources on marketing that will chew up whatever margin they’re surviving on right now.

      Bottom line, for publishers, all there is right now is anecdotal info to base these assumptions and projections off of. For those of us that are living it day to day and working out solutions to keep folks afloat after regs kick in…$500 pounds that were getting $1700 this time last year is absolutely a reality. And if you think that the illicit market is going to be a lifeline… good luck. If I were a broker on that side of the industry I would be buying at $500 (or less) all day long right now. Anyone that goes higher than that won’t be in business for long because it’s going to take the consumer market too long to mature and understand the difference between a $500 unit and a $2000 unit.

  9. Launchin on

    This article is dumb. Prop 64 is even worse. Big bizz will take over. Stop growing bunk weed and you’ll stop getting bunk prices.

    • Mike on

      How do people accomplish growing bunk weed anyways? The plant is a weed after all. Last summer, I grew 1 plant in a small pot on my balcony. I left for 2 weeks for vacation and came back to a shriveled dead looking plant. After soaking it, the thing came back and gave me 1/4 pound of awesome weed. As good as anything I buy at the dispensary. I used no fertilizer or food, didn’t use exceptional soil or anything and I didn’t trim the plant at all. People who claim to grow “the best” stuff are overly high on themselves. No pun intended. Growing weed is super easy.

      • Dan on

        You’re an idiot Mike if you think growing great weed is super easy. You tell your story of how you mistreated your plant and it turned out good anyway. BS. Imagine if you never stressed that plant like that how much better it would have been

  10. Hastings RH on

    I don’t see prices going down with current compliance and regulation cost plus the 45%tax.. There’s already 400 dollar pounds here in Cali just like Washington state with its massive supply of sub par aka crappy weed I’d never consume. High quality cannabis in Cali is much much higher than 1600 and there is a huge market for high quality. The future market trends are speculative at best…

  11. AdamX on

    We call this new set of rules a “regulated market”, but in reality, it’s a lot looser regulations than before. For the past decade or more, people have been using rules like 6 plants per patient, or max. 99 plants per property as the regulatory framework, and now people are allowed .5 acres or even multiple acres. And, before there was a much higher probability of going to jail, so the most efficient farmers and horticulturists in the world did not grow cannabis, and the few that did, didn’t grow very much qty. Now that California farmers, not cannabis farmers, but professional, modernly equiped agricultural farmers are cultivating cannabis on optimal Ag land, cannabis is going to go down in price until it reaches nearly every other crop price, A FEW DOLLARS PER POUND. Bio-diverse organic farms with healthy soil, good infrastructure and modern equipment spend roughly $15,000-30,000 per acre per year on almost any crop. In prime regions of California, it is easy to clear 5,000 lbs of cannabis per acre per year. This equates to $3-6 per lb of cannabis. I love cannabis, but growing it isn’t magically difficult. The difficulty/cost came in hiding it, and in doing it without investing modern tools and infrastructure and optimal land.

    Cannabis has gone down in price nearly 10% per year between 2014-2016. In 2017, price went down 25% just because of Registration programs in Calaveras, San Luis Obispo, Monterey, etc that gave confidence to new, larger scale cultivators to get in to the market and for existing cultivators to scale up. This trend isn’t stopping. It is only increasing and at a faster rate every year. We will see prices drop 20-30% again in 2018 and by 50% in 2019. Indoor will virtually disappear by 2020. And the avg price will be well below $200/lb in 2021.

    Price is a factor of Supply and Demand. Demand is only going up 2x over the next few years with the Rec Market coming online, but Supply is going up 2-3x every year. Next year, don’t expect to see massive drops in price, but from 2019 until California legally can sell out-of-State we will see prices drop in half or more each year.

    • grant on

      i couldnt agree more, see my post above. The only wild card that could drastically slow the price slide, an possibly bump it up, would be some widespread scientific confirmation of the medical benefits of MJ. if it begins to displace some pharma products the market potential could expand by many multiples.

      • Sean on

        Growing cannabis is easy, growing excellent cannabis is NOT easy. In Oregon we have a glut of mediocre cannabis that is not selling at ANY price. People want the best, period. Also, growing a few plants for personal is easy, a 100ft greenhouse is not.

        • grant on

          pretty flowers will always draw a premium, but most of the market will be in the oils over time. Vape pens and dabs are quickly repacing burning one.

    • Tomthumb on

      Totally agree with Adamx . .anyone ,from cultivator to nutrient supplier ,to retailer will need to get used to the normal margins that exist in agribusiness sector. There is no pricing power ,and not enough differentiation to justify current prices or even ranges of pricing .any one arguing against this does not understand basic economics

  12. Richardo on

    The only winners here are the Dispensaries and the Gov with all their taxes! The little guy is going to get squeezed out…that is obvious! When the dispensary buys for 60-$100oz or less and sell for 400 oz or more with new taxes….it would be hard to say they are not making more money in this game!

  13. Joe r on

    I am a mid sized producer/processor in Washington.
    First, if your not in the business, you don’t have a clue about what’s going on.
    In Washington our tax on marijuana is around 50% and accounts for 1/3 of the selling price. I haven’t noticed what Cali is doing, but I guarantee you the only people making money is the state.
    Also, if you don’t understand the implications of IRS code 280e, you really are out of your element.
    No one in any state is going to make money until 280e is repealed, and the excise taxes are lowered.
    Because of this, diversion is rampant here because black market prices are higher.
    I don’t care what any study says, premium bud is around $3 to $3.50, and value bud is around $2 to $2.50 a gram. Out door weed is around $1.50 unless it is good enough to sell as premium.
    Another thing you should expect is, although the state has already collected $350m in taxes, they don’t give any of it to the regulatory body for real enforcement, so cheating is rampant.
    Hope ya all have fun in your new market, but unless you have the funds to sustain you until times get better (lower taxes), and to expand out of your own pockets (profits won’t be enough) you should not get in this business. I have watched to many friends loose their savings, House, and sometimes family.

  14. Mike on

    Limit the cultivation licenses, problem solved! Like NV, supply meets demand, if it does not issue another batch of licenses. But nooo CA is greedy more licenses more $$$. More black market more fines, more arrests, more money for CA. Lets feed the lazy homeless with hard working AG ppl

  15. Kraig Richard on

    I liked the taste of early 70’s Colombian gold. Outdoor. Pollinated. Heirloom. Pressed into bricks. Growers here are now too stuck on High THC and less on balances and nuances of that delectable high altitude, equatorial sun, those soils, and whatever macabre curing regimes they used. I also miss Thai Sticks. $200 an ounce is a lot for poor underemployed people to pay.

    • Laura Hamilton on

      There is a movement afoot to bring back old strains. If you’re interested in reading more about this, check out the article here. – MJBizDaily

  16. Robert Garms on

    As soon as the farmers decide to grow it, 3-5 years. The small plot growers will be done. Unless, one can borrow the cash, 3 Million minimum to compete. Marijuana will be the new corn, cotton, soy bean crop to the farming world. Those investing 50k-500k today, may get their Money back. But, soon the small grower will disappear. Just like every other crop invested in, other than the three mentioned, have done in the last 200 years. Big farming will control that crop and their is nothing anyone can do about it, without the cash and knowledge to move forward.


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