Will Florida ever legalize adult-use marijuana?

Will Florida, the largest medical cannabis market in the U.S., ever legalize adult-use marijuana?

After a single multistate operator spent more than $200 million on two attempts, only to be thwarted by what critics say was a “deliberate effort” by Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis to suppress direct democracy and keep cannabis off of the 2026 ballot, the future of legalization in the Sunshine State is an open question at best.

Smart & Safe Florida, a campaign committee supporting a proposed constitutional amendment that would have legalized cannabis for adults 21 and older –  bankrolled almost entirely by Tallahassee-based Trulieve Cannabis Corp., the state’s largest operator – had until Feb. 1 to collect more than 880,000 signatures from registered voters to qualify for the November ballot.

On Sunday, Florida Secretary of State Cord Byrd announced the campaign came up short – the culmination of what legalization advocates called “a concerted attack on direct democracy” that saw state officials declare more than 200,000 signatures invalid last fall and arrest or issue warrants for 15 campaign workers for allegedly violating new elections laws earlier this year.

Florida marijuana legalization still has a chance via the courts

In comments to MJBizDaily, Smart & Safe promised Monday to challenge the decision in court, where multiple actions potentially affecting the situation are underway.

The campaign is challenging the dismissal of at least 98,000 signatures, which, if determined valid, would qualify legalization for the ballot, as Smart & Safe argued in court filings this week.

A trial determining a separate lawsuit filed against the new elections rules that DeSantis signed into effect last year is scheduled to begin Feb. 9.

That means there’s still a shred of hope for Smart & Safe.

But in the meantime, the whole episode is likely to discourage other would-be legalizers from following in Trulieve or Smart & Safe’s footsteps – at least until DeSantis or his handpicked successors, all of whom have demonstrated staunch opposition to cannabis, leave office, observers said.

DeSantis ‘dismantl(ed) the system’ to defeat marijuana legalization in Florida

“This seems to be a concerted attack on direct democracy by the DeSantis administration,” said Kevin Caldwell, the Southeast legislative manager at the Marijuana Policy Project, a prominent pro-reform advocacy group.

“Obviously, we know their opposition to cannabis policy reform and specifically legalization,” he added.

But after a 2024 legalization effort endorsed by Donald Trump came up four percentage points shy of the 60% threshold needed under state law, it appears the DeSantis administration went to extreme measures.

“I think the only way they could defeat it this time was by dismantling the system,” Caldwell said.

Prominent Democrats agreed. In a statement, former state Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried, the statewide Democratic Party chair, accused DeSantis officials “of a deliberate effort to silence voters.”

Florida is one of several Republican-led states to tighten laws around citizen-led initiatives in recent years. And absent significant changes in state legislatures, voter initiatives are adult-use marijuana legalization’s best chance at passage.

“If we’re being honest, at the end of the day, they want to make this process harder,” Stephen Richer, an expert on elections law at the Cato Institute, a libertarian think tank, and the former Republican recorder of Maricopa County, Arizona, told MJBizDaily.

Smart & Safe’s experience will make future legalization campaigns “think twice about” even starting an attempt in Florida, he added.

“And if you are going to do it, then you probably need to spend a lot of money making sure you’re in compliance and knowing exactly who’s gathering signatures for you,” he said.

The future of the MMJ industry in Florida

The cost alone might deter future attempts.

Smart and Safe’s setback raises serious questions for both the Florida MMJ industry as-is – and specifically for Trulieve.

Since 2022, when the first Smart and Safe campaign launched ahead of the 2024 ballot, Trulieve has spent more than $200 million on the two legalization campaigns, campaign finance records show.

Trulieve did not respond to a request for comment for this story. $200 million is also the amount of debt the company has taken on since December, the company said in press releases.

There are slightly more than 932,000 registered medical cannabis patients in Florida, up about 4% from a year ago. But there are also 742 retail locations in the state, up from 700 in early 2025.

Of these, Trulieve operates 161, according to state data.

Most MMJ dispensaries in the state are operated by large cannabis multistate operators, with Verano Holdings through its Muv brand, Ayr Wellness and Curaleaf Holdings the next-largest operators in the state after Trulieve.

A spokesperson for the Florida Medical Marijuana Trade Association, which represents big MSOs in the state, did not respond to a request for comment.

Cannabis sales in Florida totaled $1.65 billion in 2025, according to data analytics firm Headset.

The ongoing nationwide war on legal marijuana

Despite the executive order last month ordering cannabis rescheduling from President Donald Trump – a Florida voter – other Republican governors have also gone to extraordinary lengths to block potential cannabis expansion.

In 2024, after two justices recused themselves without a stated reason, Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders appointed special justices to the state Supreme Court to decide whether a medical cannabis expansion bill would advance to the ballot.

The newly reconstituted court removed the measure on a 4-3 vote two weeks before Election Day.

More recently, Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt used his State of the State address on Monday to call for a voter initiative that would repeal medical marijuana legalization in the state and re-criminalize an estimated $600 million industry.

Florida operators are still hopeful that Florida legalization is a matter of when, not if.

“This is a setback, not the end,” said Jasmine Johnson, the CEO of Gud Essence, a newly licensed vertically integrated medical marijuana treatment center (MMTC).

“Florida has one of the largest and most mature medical cannabis markets in the country, and public support for broader access hasn’t disappeared,” she added. “The path may shift, but the conversation is far from over.”

Chris Roberts can be reached at chris.roberts@mjbizdaily.com.