Marijuana advocates optimistic Florida will legalize adult-use sales

(This story is part of the cover package in the September-October issue of MJBizMagazine.)

The slate of cannabis ballot referendums this November is headlined by Florida, the third-most-populous U.S. state, where voters will decide whether to legalize recreational marijuana through ballot measure Amendment 3.

A victory in Florida would be one of the top legalization events in recent U.S. cannabis history, trailing only California’s successful referendum in 2016, New York’s Legislature approving adult use in 2021 and, most recently, President Joe Biden’s administration seeking to reschedule marijuana.

Industry observers say an Election Day victory in Florida, already home to a thriving medical market, would have multiple benefits for the industry:

• It would pave the way for what could become the second-biggest recreational marijuana market in the United States behind California – or at least a top-4 market with California, Michigan and, eventually, New York.
• It would add wind to the sails of both rescheduling and future state-legalization efforts in the remaining prohibitionist markets.
• It would increase confidence among investors from inside and outside the cannabis sector.

“We are very, very confident of a yes vote here; there are lots of things moving in our favor,” said Darren Weiss, CEO of Chicago-based multistate operator Verano Holdings, which owns the Müv brand of dispensaries in Florida.

“I think that we’re going to be able to see adult-use sales at some point in 2025.”

Steve Reilly, the partner and head of government relations at Insa, a Massachusetts-based marijuana MSO that has vertically integrated operations in Florida, was cautiously optimistic but said it was important for legalization advocates to continue reaching out to voters.

“We’ve got to make that argument for the voters and make more people aware that amendment is out there; voter turnout is important,” Reilly told MJBizMagazine.

“There’s still a lot of time between now and the elections – and potentially, a lot of things could change.”

Florida marijuana amendment

The fight for recreational marijuana legalization in Florida faces difficult challenges nonetheless, and supporters cautioned against taking victory for granted.

One important reason to get high voter turnout is that, to pass in Florida, a referendum must get at least 60% of the vote – not just a simple majority, as in most states.

In 2014, a recreational marijuana ballot measure in the state, Amendment 2, received almost 58% of the vote but failed because it did not meet the 60% threshold.

Marijuana advocates ran campaigns for recreational marijuana legalization in 2016, 2018, 2020 and 2022, but each failed to secure enough signatures to get on the ballot.

Florida voters secured medical marijuana in 2016 by a 71%-29% vote.

Weiss and other advocates are encouraged by polls showing voter support significantly above 60%.

For example, a Fox News poll from early June found 66% support for Amendment 3, with 32% opposition and 2% undecided.

Weiss attributes the positive polling – at least in part – to Floridians being used to living in a state with a regulated medical marijuana market.

“Cannabis is ubiquitous in Florida,” Weiss said, adding that the state has the highest patient penetration of any medical marijuana market.

“People see it; they realize what it’s like to live with legal and safe access to cannabis, and I have no concerns that we’re going to be able to get this over the finish line.”

Amendment 3 funding

Another big reason for optimism is the huge fundraising advantage that legalization has in Florida.

Through Sept. 6,  pro-marijuana forces had raised more than $95 million – led by more than $87 million in contributions from Trulieve Cannabis Corp. – while prohibitionists had raised more than $14.6 million to fight Amendment 3, according to Ballotopedia.

The opposition’s total includes $12 million donated in August by Ken Griffin, the majority owner of a Miami-based hedge fund.

That means Smart & Safe Florida, the ballot measure committee behind Amendment 3, has smashed cannabis fundraising records, bringing in more than any other marijuana-related ballot measure committee in a single election cycle, according to Open Secrets, a campaign finance-tracking organization.

California’s Proposition 64, which previously held the record for most-funded recreational marijuana legalization ballot measure, raised $36.7 million during the 2016 cycle, according to Open Secrets.

As of July, Amendment 3 was the most-funded measure of any kind in the United States in 2024, Open Secrets said.

And Verano’s Weiss said he doesn’t expect the financial scales to tip before November.

“I don’t think that there’s a whole lot of very wealthy folks that are going to be putting money toward (opposing legalization) – it’s not a winning issue.”

Opponents of recreational marijuana in Florida recently took another hit when the state’s most famous resident, former President Donald Trump, acknowledged Amendment 3 would likely pass and that lawmakers should focus on ensuring legalization is done “correctly.”

‘Florida man’ foils rec?

Despite their financial advantage, legalization advocates noted that they are concerned Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who opposes the adult-use measure, and his prohibitionist allies in the state Legislature could try to undermine a recreational market regime.

“What the Legislature ends up doing is a big deal,” Insa’s Reilly said.

“They’re going to have their opportunity, assuming the ballot question passes, to fill in a lot of what that might look like when it actually goes into effect – so that could change what that market looks like,” he added.

Weiss agreed: “I think the biggest risks that we have are, one, that DeSantis and the Florida Legislature try to derail the process or otherwise make rules that are so onerous that it essentially makes the operation of an adult-use facility organization in Florida untenable.”

But Reilly and Weiss both noted that in this regard, the 60% threshold needed for passage is an advantage because such a large majority of Florida voters supported the measure.

“If the ballot question passes, that means 60% or more of Florida voters want this, and I would hope that would be a major consideration for the Legislature,” Reilly said.

Weiss added: “A victory here means necessarily that a pretty large proportion of the people of Florida want this to happen.”

Weiss pointed to Ohio, where Gov. Mike DeWine and his legislative allies tried to water down that state’s recreational referendum but ultimately backtracked.

“If you’re a popularly elected politician, you don’t really want to go against what the majority of your constituents want,” Weiss said.

“But it’s something that we have to pay attention to as an industry.”

Status quo in Florida?

According to the ballot referendum language, existing medical cannabis licensees could sell adult-use products, but Florida’s Legislature also could pass a law to license new operators to grow and sell marijuana.

Weiss doesn’t believe new recreational marijuana licenses will be approved in Florida any time soon.

“You need to get the Legislature and the governor on the same page about what they want this program to look like, and that’s not an easy task,” Weiss said.

“The most likely scenario – and one which features prominently in our game plan for Florida – is somewhat of a status quo in terms of the licensing, both in terms of the vertically integrated structure as well as in the number of licenses.”

Weiss said that is the case because, in Florida’s current MMJ market structure, marijuana businesses can open as many production facilities and stores as they want.

“It gives you an opportunity to really prove out your business model, more so than in states where there are these arbitrary restrictions on numbers of licenses,” Weiss said.

“It’s determined really by who gets in first and who’s willing to pay the price of entry.”

But that also could limit opportunities for smaller players, he added.

“Given the vertical structure, given the size of the licensees, it’s harder for new and smaller players to have as big of an impact on the entirety of the state as compared to a market that’s a bit newer, or one that has license caps,” Weiss said.

He added that Verano already is preparing for the new recreational landscape by increasing its cultivation capacity and the number of stores.

Marijuana nationwide?

Given the size of Florida’s potential marijuana market, as well as the state’s more general influence, the effects of legalizing adult use there will be felt beyond its borders.

“Florida, being a vertically integrated state, is a high-margin state,” Weiss noted.

“And if you take (Section) 280E (of the Internal Revenue Code) out of the picture with rescheduling, you are talking about some pretty incredible cash-generation opportunities.

“So, I think it changes the nature of the entire industry, because it strengthens the balance sheets of the companies that are able to succeed in Florida,” Weiss said.

Legalization success in Florida could help push the remaining holdout states into doing the same.

“It’s a fairly red state at this point, and a red state that would go adult use probably would lead to other states that are similarly situated considering it,” Weiss explained.

“The more states that do that, the more likely it is more states will jump in.”

“As all your neighbors are getting tax benefits and you’re not really preventing cannabis in your state, I think at some point there might be a breaking point where they say, ‘Look, it’s almost de facto legal nationally, what’s the point at this juncture of resisting legalization?’”

Omar Sacirbey can be reached at omar.sacirbey@mjbizdaily.com.